Page 94 - IRMSA Risk Report 2020

NE W APPR O A CHES FOR A NE W DEC ADE

Having been involved for a few years now in the IRMSA Risk Report process, I am thrilled that the 2020 edition is taking a
fresh approach – not just for the sake of an updated look and feel, but in a serious attempt to equip the South African risk
industry with a toolkit for a new era.

In last year’s report (which I highly recommend you revisit, by the way), I provided two frameworks to help risk managers
think like futurists: the futurist toolkit and the TIDES of Disruptive Change model. These are still relevant and valuable.
In addition, this year’s IRMSA Risk Report is packed with exactly the tools you need to continue applying futurist thinking
to your task as a risk manager. Three elements are particularly important and deserve your close attention:

SCENARIOS
IRMSA has sourced some of South Africa’s best scenario planners: Frans Cronje looks at possibilities for South Africa
in the 2020s, and Clem Sunter widens our horizon by considering key international indicators. In addition, you have
a summary of the Indlulamithi scenarios and a few expert contributors who have suggested further scenarios. We
debated whether we should consolidate these scenarios into one set to make it more accessible but decided that the
correct approach is to showcase the diversity of opinions about the future. This is the new reality of uncertainty about
what comes next. Use these insights and different expert opinions to build a comprehensive set of scenarios for your
own organisation, to provide a framework within which to do your risk analyses for the 2020s.

T OP RISKS ANALY SIS
Past IRMSA reports have shown a tendency by the risk community in South Africa to be slightly reactive and retrospective.
An analysis by IRMSA of the past decade shows that risk managers are much more reactive than proactive. The 2020
edition of IRMSA’s Risk Report has reduced the number of expert opinions, with the goal of providing a more focused,
forward-looking and proactive analysis of key risks. Every risk in the final list in this report will impact your organisation
in the next few years, and you must take each one into account in your analysis and planning.

C O M P E T E N C I E S
I am particularly impressed with the section at the end of this report that highlights the competencies associated with
building risk resilience.

Since we cannot predict the future, we can only ensure that we build resilience, adaptability and innovation into the
very DNA of our organisations, our teams, and ourselves as individuals. This is will become an increasingly important
component of risk management in the 2020s.

Risk management is more strategic than ever. The good news is that your CEO is probably as focused as you are on getting
this right these days. When things go wrong in a complex system and its not obvious where the problem was or how to
fix it, stakeholders invariably turn against the boss, and CEOs get fired if for no other reason than ‘something needs to be
done’. Your boss is focused.

You can use that focus to raise the profile of the risk function in your organisation. But to be taken seriously, you will need
to up your game too, becoming more strategic, more business-value driven, and bringing clarity, calm analysis and insight
into the chaos and complexity of the 2020s world.

This IRMSA Risk Report will be one of your most valuable tools in 2020.

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