Page 100 - IRMSA Risk Report 2020

Let’s look at what complexity is and isn’t. Contrary to popular belief, complexity is not just “a higher order of complicated-
ness”. Often it is referred to as an adverse condition, something to be simplified or avoided. When in reality, complexity is
not good or bad, it simply is – and how we manage in complexity is different to how we manage in other contexts.

Human beings are complex; we live our lives in complex social structures embedded in complex adaptive systems
like cities, organisations, and ecosystems. Our approach to managing risk in these socio-technical, socio-ecological,
and so-cio-economic systems requires new skills and new ways of thinking. Let us explore the differences between
complex and complicated systems. Roberto Poli articulates the main differences between complicated and complex as
follows:

COMPLICATED SYSTEMS COMPLEX SYSTEMS

Because we are dealing with patterns arising from networks
Linear cause-and-effect pathways allow us to identify specific of multiple interacting (and interconnected) causes, i.e. there
causes for observed effects.
are no clearly distinguishable cause-and-effect pathways.
Must be addressed as entire systems; they cannot be reduced
to their parts. One cannot assume that one structure has one
Can be addressed piece by piece, i.e. they can be reduced to function as the structural parts of the system are multifunc-
their parts. We can decompose the system into its structural tional, i.e. the same function can be performed by different
components and fully understand the functional relation- structural components. These parts are also richly inter-re-
ships between these parts in a piecemeal way. lated, i.e. they change one another in unexpected ways as
they interact. We can, therefore, never fully understand these
inter-relationships.
Outputs are not proportional or linearly related to inputs;
Every output of the system has a proportionate input i.e. small changes in one part of the system can cause sudden
Newtonian physics apply. and unexpected outputs in other parts of the system or even
system-wide reorganisation.
Complex problems present as emergent patterns resulting
from dynamic interactions between multiple non-linearly
connected parts. In these systems, we’re rarely able to distin-
Systemic contexts and interactions can be controlled, and the
problems they present can be diagnosed and permanently guish the real problem, and even small and well-intentioned
interventions may result in unintended consequences. They
solved.
cannot be controlled –the best one can do is to influence
them or learn to “dance with them” as Donella Meadows
rightly said.
Complex systems are open systems, to the extent that it is
Complicated systems are closed systems, i.e. their environ- often difficult to determine where one system ends, and an-
ments are delimited by governing constraints that allow the other starts. Complex systems are also nested; they are part
system to interact only with selected or approved types of of larger-scale complex systems, e.g. an organisation within
systems. an industry within an economy. It is therefore impossible to
separate the system from its context.
A complex system can never be fully known or modelled. I
think it was the physicist Murray Gellman that said: “The only
These systems, because they are closed and can be decon- valid model of a complex system is the system itself.” We
structed, can be fully known or modelled. cannot transform complex systems into complicated ones by
spending more time and resources on collecting more data or
developing better theories.
Complicated systems need an external force to act on them Complex systems can observe themselves, learn and adapt.
to introduce change. They are creative.

“ D E C I S I O N - M A K E R S C O M M O N LY M I S TA K E C O M P L E X

S Y S T E M S F O R S I M P LY C O M P L I C AT E D O N E S A N D L O O K
F O R S O L U T I O N S W I T H O U T R E A L I S I N G T H AT ‘ L E A R N I N G
T O D A N C E ’ W I T H A C O M P L E X S Y S T E M I S D E F I N I T E LY
‘
D I F F E R E N T F R O M S O L V I N G ’ T H E P R O B L E M S A R I S I N G
F R O M I T.”

R O B E R T O P O L I

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