Page 2 - IRMSA Risk Report 2020
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INFOGR APHIC










       SOUTH AFRIC A SCENARIOS


       From  our  analysis,  all  the  risks  we  face  as  a  country  will  lead  to  the  realisation  of  our  worst-case  scenario, “Perpetual
       hangover”, if not dealt with decisively. There is significant work to do to manage our overall country risk profile to a more
       acceptable level and achieve “Spring of hope!”.

                                        WE  ARE  HERE                              WE  ARE  GOING  HERE






                                         PERPE TU AL          F AKE   IT  TILL   WE   SPRING  OF  HOPE
                                         HANGO VER             M AKE  IT   . . .  OR
                                                                     N OT ?
                                        Short-termism, social                           Taking individual and
                    IRMSA
                                        bankruptcy, ultimate   Lofty goals, not prepared to   collective charge of our
                                       implosion of the State  make tough calls, ignoring   future, building a new
                                                              the elephant in the room,   national consensus to drive
                                                                hoping for the best      a resilient society


                                     Gwara Gwara – A flounder-  iSbhujwa – An enclave   Nayi le Walk – A nation in
               INDL UL AMITHI
                                     ing false dawn          bourgeois nation        step with itself
                CLEM  SUNTER         Bloodbath               Forked lightning        Gilded cage
                                                                                            Rise of the
               FR ANS  CR ONJE       The break-Up         Tyranny of the left  Rise of the right
                                                                                            rainbow



        SOUTH AFRIC A RISK PR OFILE

        We conducted a robust “look-back” analysis of the risks included in our risk reports for the last five years (2015 to 2019). We
        also evaluated key current developments and forward-looking views and considered the scenarios of our experts. From
        this, we defined the 12 top risks South Africa will face in 2020.

          SPARSENESS OF UNIFIED                                                       FA I L U R E  T O  D E   V E L O P,
         E THIC AL  AND VISIONAR Y                                                    AT   T R   A C   T  A N D / O R  R E   TA I N
                      LEADERSHIP                                                      TA L E N T

             C O N T I N U I N G  P R I V A T E                                       E X   T R E M E  W E AT H E R  E   V E N T S ,
        A N D  P U B L I C  G O V E R N A N C E                                       N AT U R   A L  D I S A S T E R S  A N D
                         F A I L U R E S                                              C L I M AT E  C H A N G E

            FAIL URE  T O R OO T OUT                                                  I N S U F F I C I E N T  E L E C   T R I C I T   Y
             DEEPLY ENTRENCHED                                                        A N D / O R  E N E R G Y
                      C ORR UPTION
                                                   PERPE TU AL
                                                   HANGO VER
        CHANGES IN LEGISL ATION                                                       D I S R U P T I V E
                AND REGUL ATIONS                                                      T E C H N O L O G I E S

       ILL C ONCEIVED NHI POLIC Y                                                     C   Y B E R   A T T A C K S ,  D A T A
            AND/OR SUB OPTIM AL                                                       F R A U D  A N D  D A T A
                 IMPLEMENTATION                                                       T H E F T

             ILL C ONCEIVED L AND                                                     F A I L U R E ,   D  E L A  Y  ,  A N D / O R
          REFORM POLIC Y AND/OR                                                       S U  B  - O  P  T I M  A  L
                     SUB OPTIM AL                                                     I M P L E M E N T A T I O N  O F
                 IMPLEMENTATION                                                       E C O N O M I C  R E F O R M
                                                                                      I N I T I A T I V E S
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