Page 2 - IRMSA Risk Report 2020

INFOGR APHIC

SOUTH AFRIC A SCENARIOS

From our analysis, all the risks we face as a country will lead to the realisation of our worst-case scenario, “Perpetual
hangover”, if not dealt with decisively. There is significant work to do to manage our overall country risk profile to a more
acceptable level and achieve “Spring of hope!”.

WE ARE HERE WE ARE GOING HERE

PERPE TU AL F AKE IT TILL WE SPRING OF HOPE
HANGO VER M AKE IT . . . OR
N OT ?
Short-termism, social Taking individual and
IRMSA
bankruptcy, ultimate Lofty goals, not prepared to collective charge of our
implosion of the State make tough calls, ignoring future, building a new
the elephant in the room, national consensus to drive
hoping for the best a resilient society

Gwara Gwara – A flounder- iSbhujwa – An enclave Nayi le Walk – A nation in
INDL UL AMITHI
ing false dawn bourgeois nation step with itself
CLEM SUNTER Bloodbath Forked lightning Gilded cage
Rise of the
FR ANS CR ONJE The break-Up Tyranny of the left Rise of the right
rainbow

SOUTH AFRIC A RISK PR OFILE

We conducted a robust “look-back” analysis of the risks included in our risk reports for the last five years (2015 to 2019). We
also evaluated key current developments and forward-looking views and considered the scenarios of our experts. From
this, we defined the 12 top risks South Africa will face in 2020.

SPARSENESS OF UNIFIED FA I L U R E T O D E V E L O P,
E THIC AL AND VISIONAR Y AT T R A C T A N D / O R R E TA I N
LEADERSHIP TA L E N T

C O N T I N U I N G P R I V A T E E X T R E M E W E AT H E R E V E N T S ,
A N D P U B L I C G O V E R N A N C E N AT U R A L D I S A S T E R S A N D
F A I L U R E S C L I M AT E C H A N G E

FAIL URE T O R OO T OUT I N S U F F I C I E N T E L E C T R I C I T Y
DEEPLY ENTRENCHED A N D / O R E N E R G Y
C ORR UPTION
PERPE TU AL
HANGO VER
CHANGES IN LEGISL ATION D I S R U P T I V E
AND REGUL ATIONS T E C H N O L O G I E S

ILL C ONCEIVED NHI POLIC Y C Y B E R A T T A C K S , D A T A
AND/OR SUB OPTIM AL F R A U D A N D D A T A
IMPLEMENTATION T H E F T

ILL C ONCEIVED L AND F A I L U R E , D E L A Y , A N D / O R
REFORM POLIC Y AND/OR S U B - O P T I M A L
SUB OPTIM AL I M P L E M E N T A T I O N O F
IMPLEMENTATION E C O N O M I C R E F O R M
I N I T I A T I V E S