Page 52 - IRMSA Risk Report 2020

4.3.6
ILL-C ONCEIVED L AND REFORM POLIC Y AND / OR
SUB-OPTIM AL IMPLEMENTATION

DUE TO SLOW PROGRESS AND POLITICISATION OF THE LAND ISSUE, LAND REFORM MAY NOT BE SUCCESSFULLY
ACHIEVED WHICH COULD HAVE UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES SUCH AS EROSION OF THE COUNTRY’S ABILITY TO
MAINTAIN A SOUND ECONOMIC SYSTEM.
SCENARIOS FLAGS RISK RANKING OVER LAST 5 YEARS

Leadership RANKING SCALE
Institutional capacity 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Politics
SPRING OF HOPE
Social cohesion
National policy
FAKE IT TILL WE MAKE IT...OR NOT? Service delivery ANNUAL RANKING
Inequality 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
NOT
NOT
NOT
NOT
NOT
Economy RANKED RANKED RANKED RANKED RANKED
PERPETUAL HANGOVER
Global trends
Climate
Given SA’s history, land reform is of symbolic significance. This makes it a highly sensitive issue and has led to its invocation
as a major political cause. The failure to meet land reform targets is deemed justification for expropriation of land without
compensation.

TOP 5 CHALLENGES TO ACHIEVING TOP 5 RISK TREATMENT OPTIONS AND
TARGETS OPPORTUNITIES
1. Historical conflicts, emotional sensitivities, and politicisation of 1. Basing the land reform policy on principles of inclusivity, social
the land issue combined with the lack of a national compact to cohesion, social compact building, and benefits for all.
mitigate such conflicts. 2. Continuous, robust, and clear communication to extensive
2. Uncertainty around the best way to define and then implement stakeholder groupings to build a common purpose.
land reform. 3. Establishment of an empowered and enabled Land Reform
3. Lack of skills, competencies, and capabilities to execute any Agency that is legitimate and credible in the eyes of all affected
specific land reform policy. stakeholders and society at large.
4. The “wait and see” approach adopted by the private sector, 4. Appointing honest, credible, and competent individuals in all
instead of robust, constructive participation to achieve a public sector entities that play a role in land reform, e.g. The
common purpose. Department of Agriculture, Rural Development and Land Reform,
5. The absence of legal precedent to inform policy on issues of and others.
land reform. 5. Strong leadership in all levels of society – including public sector,
private sector, labour, and civil society.

FAC TS AND FIGURES

• In economic terms: the agricultural sector contributes ±3% of GDP; contributes significantly to food security; and earns export revenue;
• At present, SA imports some of its food needs. Without domestic production, imports would grow, which would negatively impact the
country’s balance of payments position; and
• Land reform has underperformed relative to expectations, as evidenced by the failure to meet the target of transferring 30% of the
country’s land to black ownership.
Source: Centre of Risk Analysis

• 83% of urban and peri-urban dwellers reside on 2% of the land.
• Globally competitive agriculture sector and we export food, achievements that the panel seeks to sustain and improve.
• But 41,6% of rural people and 59,4% of South Africans in urban areas have severely inadequate access to food.
• We have an advanced property registry system which is wholly inadequate to the actual needs of the majority, with 60% of South
Africans’ land and property rights not recorded or registered.
• An estimated 60% of South Africans have no recorded land or property rights, and this reflects the ongoing legacy of apartheid, with only
a small minority of black South Africans acquiring secure tenure – whether through land reform or private mechanisms
• It is estimated that the progress amounts to under 10% of all commercial farmland, over 23 years, compared to the initial target of 30% by
2014.
• Discussion must also focus on the fact that approximately 72% of land is held privately in freehold and leasehold, whilst 14% is held by
the state and a further 14% held in terms of the customary law.
• The focus needs to vest on the 72% of land (held by whites, and often by absentee landowners) rather than on the small share of land
held by the traditional leaders and the State.
Source: Final report of the Presidential Advisory Panel on land reform and agriculture - 4 May 2019