Page 56 - IRMSA Risk Report 2020

4.3.8
EX TREME WEATHER E VENT S , NATUR AL DISASTERS AND
CLIM ATE CHANGE

DUE TO AN UNCOORDINATED RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE, EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS AND NATURAL
DISASTERS MAY CONTINUOUSLY INCREASE, LEADING TO INCREASED COST OF RESPONSE AND A DETERIORATION OF
LIVEABLE SPACE IN WHICH COMMUNITIES CAN PROSPER.

SCENARIOS FLAGS RISK RANKING OVER LAST 5 YEARS

Leadership RANKING SCALE
Institutional capacity 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Politics
SPRING OF HOPE
Social cohesion
National policy
FAKE IT TILL WE MAKE IT...OR NOT? Service delivery ANNUAL RANKING
Inequality 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
NOT
NOT
NOT
Economy RANKED RANKED RANKED
PERPETUAL HANGOVER
Global trends
Climate
In the past four decades SA has experienced more than 80 noticeable hydro-meteorological “weather related” disasters.
Substantial global evidence shows that such extreme weather events have increased in frequency and intensity. Into
the future, there is also strong evidence that the projected climate scenarios will amplify these trends in SA, in particular,
weather-related events such as heat waves, floods, droughts, wildfires, and storm surges.

TOP 5 CHALLENGES TO ACHIEVING TOP 5 RISK TREATMENT OPTIONS AND
TARGETS OPPORTUNITIES
1. Land-use planning falls on local municipalities that are under 1. Good planning practices for land-use combined with targeted
tremendous pressure to address many other complex urban adaptation interventions, aligned to the mandates of local
challenges and have limited financial and human resources to authorities, e.g. climate adaptation actions implemented across
safely and efficiently plan cities to withstand natural disasters local municipalities’ spatial planning; land-use management;
and the expected climatic shifts. landscape and urban design; environmental planning and
2. The climate is changing quicker than cities can adapt, and there infrastructure; and engineering functions.
is a lack of scientific decision-ready data to inform and prioritise 2. Cross-sectoral collaboration in Government with a clear mandate
effective interventions. across sectors to focus on disaster risk reduction and climate
3. A rapidly urbanising and growing population that must be change adaptation in all spheres of Government.
accommodated in an environment of low economic growth. 3. Adapting cities to the anticipated effects of climate change,
4. A lack of knowledge about how our daily actions affect our including retrofitting high-risk cities to become climate-resilient/
future exposure to these climate change and weather-related hazard-resistant.
events. 4. Public-private partnerships that focus on lessening communities’
5. Dependency on funded housing; a housing market not exposure to climate risks and protecting infrastructure
responding to low-income earners, causing more informality investments.
and vulnerable communities. 5. The adoption of sustainable practices by all: water sensitive
practices, energy efficient design, passive design principals in
buildings, resource use reduction, etc.

FAC TS AND FIGURES

• Coastal flooding:
• Increased storm frequency/intensity will cause flooding of low-lying areas if no protective structures are in place;
• ±40% of South Africans live within 60km of our coasts; and
• ±60% of the South African economy depends on coastal natural resources and trade infrastructure, such as ports.
• Floods:
• SA experienced 77 major floods between 1980 and 2010, which cost the lives of at least 1 068 people;
• Four floods in Western Cape between 2011 and 2014: 12 deaths, >23 000 affected, financial losses of >R1.6m;
• Three floods in Mpumalanga between 2014 and 2017: 15 deaths, financial losses of >R535m; and
• Four floods in Gauteng between 2015 and 2018: two deaths, extensive damage to infrastructure, homes and vehicles.
• Wildfires: Knysna fire 2017: seven deaths, >1 000 structures destroyed, >500 houses damaged, thousands of people evacuated, 1 533
families and 134 businesses directly affected, critical infrastructure (e.g. power lines) damaged or destroyed;
• Drought: In 2015/16 (most intense El Niño event ever) with Southern Africa experiencing its warmest summer ever, with average monthly
temperatures of 5°C above their monthly average climatological temperatures and large parts of the summer rainfall region of Southern
Africa recording their driest summer season since 1900; and
• Since the 1980s, SA has experienced more than 82 hydro-meteorological hazards (floods, storms, landslides, wildfires, droughts and
extreme temperatures) causing the deaths of 1 692 people and affecting more than 21m people.
Source: www.greenbook.co.za