Page 57 - IRMSA Risk Report 2020

EXPERT OPINION

ALIZE LE ROUX
SENIOR RESEARCHER, COUNCIL FOR SCIENTIFIC AND INDUSTRIAL RESEARCH (CSIR)

Hydro-meteorological disasters have devastating impacts on
communities and their structures. These disasters can result in
significant loss of lives, livelihoods, and infrastructure; impede
economic growth; and divert financial resources to “building back”
rather than “catching up.” Hydro-meteorological disasters have
affected more than 21m South Africans and cost the economy in
excess of R74bn since 1978. Recent events, such as the nation-wide
droughts in 2015/2016; the Western Cape drought in 2017/2018;
the Knysna Fires of 2017; and the Kwa-Zulu Natal, Eastern Cape and
Free State floods of 2019, have had devastating economic and social
consequences and showed just how susceptible and vulnerable
our cities and towns are to these hazards. The Knysna Fires alone
resulted in direct losses and damages in excess of R3bn with the
insurance industry being greatly affected with recorded losses in
the vicinity of R2.2bn. It is estimated that the 2015/2016 droughts
cost the economy close to R3.5bn and the 2017/2018 droughts cost
a staggering R17bn in economic losses. Heat-stress is an emerging
hazard for South African cities. Although few deaths have been
recorded, it not only poses great risk to human and animal health
and comfort but can also have devastating impacts on agricultural
yields. This issue has received much attention in countries that have
seen great loss of lives (such as from the European heatwave of
2003 and the heatwave in India in 2019).

Although the devastating effects of weather-related disasters have
received much needed attention in the media and policy arena, it
is not just these growing weather-related hazards that should alarm
us. We should also be alarmed by the growth in the direct exposure
of vulnerable settlements, communities, and infrastructure that
contribute to these devastating results. Many communities,
settlements, and cities are directly in harm’s way and the way in
which our cities and infrastructure are built and the material we
utilise have contributed to this distress.

SA has seen high rates of urbanisation and population growth and the current projections state that we can expect an additional 20m people in SA by
2050 – the vast majority of whom will be located in cities and towns. Given SA’s current economic growth rate; the backlog in housing provision; and lack
of innovative deployment technologies in the housing sector, we will most certainly be faced with much more informality in our cities. If we fail to plan
our cities effectively (poor land-use practices) and do not accommodate this growth in a sustainable and climate-smart way, we will see a significant
increase in our risk as we expose more and more vulnerable communities to the devastating impacts of climate-induced disasters.

Much of the infrastructure needed to accommodate the expected 20m population growth by 2050 has not been built yet – this affords us a unique
opportunity for building principles of resilience into our cities and towns. The infrastructure and settlements we build today will exist for decades to
come. We need to ensure that these “new” settlements are resilient, energy-efficient, water sensitive, and resistant to hazards. If we get this right, we will
have safeguarded a quarter of our population by 2050. We should retrofit and reduce high-exposure cities; reduce the vulnerability of communities;
and make them less “susceptible” to climate hazards. This will require understanding and responding to global climate commitments and an awareness
of their impact on mitigation strategies. If we can curb greenhouse gas emissions and avoid a worst-case scenario, economic growth will impact on
informality, innovation, and leapfrogging, and offer more adaptation solutions. Ultimately, As Todd Reubold, director and co-founder of Ensia stated,
“how we design, set policies, finance, govern and manage these immense challenges will define different futures for different cities”.

Source: www.greenbook.co.za (CSIR)

5 6