Page 39 - IRMSA Risk Report 2020

4.2
OUR RISK ANALY SIS APPR O A CH

We conducted a robust “look-back” analysis of the risks included in our risk reports for the last five years (2015 to 2019). We also
evaluated key current developments and forward-looking views and considered the scenarios of our experts. From this, we
defined the 12 top risks South Africa will face in 2020. These were categorised into the following logical themes:

RISK THEME # RISK NAME EXPERT(S)
LEADERSHIP Jonathan Foster-Pedley, Dean and
As a country, we need visibly demonstrated
moral, value driven and visionary leadership 1 Sparseness of unified ethical and Director, Henley Business School.
that will take SA into the future by enabling visionary leadership
us to deal with our challenges and build on Prof. Jonathan Jansen, Distinguished
Professor in Education.
our strengths in a fair and inclusive manner.
Continuing private and public Christelle Marais, Executive Director,
2
GO VERNANCE governance failures Lucidum
We must ensure that SA achieves its goal to
create a better life for all. We must eliminate Thulani Mkhungo, Chief Risk Officer,
undue benefit from the proceeds of fraud Failure to root out deeply Special Investigating Unit (SIU)
and corruption. 3 entrenched corruption
Centre for Risk Analysis
Tim Cohen, Business Editor, Daily
Maverick
Changes in legislation and
4
regulations Chandu Kashiram, Principal
Associate, Lucidum
NATIONAL POLIC Y Centre for Risk Analysis
We must make appropriate policy decisions, Ill-conceived NHI policy and/or Dr. Nicholas Crisp, Consultant:
which are based on good leadership and 5 sub-optimal implementation National Health Insurance (NHI) Fund
governance, to assist us in our pursuit of a Office, Ministry of Health
better life for all Sydney Soundy, Executive Manager:
Ill-conceived land reform Strategy and Communications, Land
6 policy and/or sub-optimal Bank
implementation
Centre for Risk Analysis
SKILLS Professor Jackie Young, Professor in
We must attract, build, and retain the right Risk Management
people with the right values in the right Failure to develop, attract and/or
positions to execute the national policy 7 retain talent Chandu Kashiram, Principal Associate,
decisions we make in order to improve our Lucidum
future. Centre for Risk Analysis
Alize Le Roux, Senior Researcher,
Extreme weather events, natural
8 Council for Scientific and Industrial
disasters and climate change
Research (CSIR)
Paul Nel, Energy Lead: Africa, Aurecon
TECHNOL OGY AND Insufficient electricity and/or
INFR ASTR UC TURE 9 energy Robert Koch, Senior Manager:
We must build and effectively maintain our Enterprise Resilience, Eskom
technology and infrastructure to enable
inclusive economic growth (including mega Nicky Downing, Chief Executive
projects relating to health, land distribution Officer, Guideline BizTech
and electricity supply). 10 Disruptive technologies
Alex Roberts, Regional Director: Sales
and Operations, Cura Software
Cyberattacks, data fraud, Ross Forgan, Director, Norton Rose
11
and data theft Fulbright
EC ONOMIC Daniel Silke, Director, Political
We must find a balance between the Failure, delay and/or sub-optimal Futures Consultancy
proactive and reactive influences on our 12 implementation of economic
economy and ensure that economic benefit reform initiatives Centre for Risk Analysis
is distributed fairly and inclusively.
TABLE 7 : LIST OF EXPERT S .

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