Page 35 - IRMSA Risk Report 2020

PERPE TU AL F AKE IT UNTIL WE
F L AG SPRING OF HOPE !
HANGO VER M AKE IT, OR NO T ?
An equitable solution to land reform
Two classes of South Africans is provided for all citizens whilst the
become apparent: one within
the walls and one outside the A new model of authoritarian high levels of productivity and quality
of agricultural products for which
walls. They have very little to do capitalism sees the erosion of
with each other. Unemployment democratic rights and freedoms SA is renowned are maintained.
7 INEQU ALIT Y The economic rebound means that.
continues to rise. South Africans but also an improvement in the
continue to fight over scarce jobs. material conditions of almost all Collaboration between the formal
and informal sectors encourages
This is exacerbated by an increase South Africans.
in xenophobic attacks and fake entrepreneurship and small business
development, which translates to
news.
improved living conditions for all.
There is a realisation that despite
political party promises, jobs
are not forthcoming. Bi-lateral
The economy, having persisted agreements stave off some of The global economy recovers and
at very low growth rates for a the negative impacts of foreign experiences a sustained, long-term
long time, eventually stagnates partners' economic policy recovery. South Africa is well on its way
before recession hits. The State changes, e.g. with China. Self- to growth rates of 5%. Local business
continuous to pursue reckless sufficiency increases. Firstly, as a confidence increases. Capital flight is
out-of-date socialist and market- survival mechanism, then as part abated and replaced by a significant
unfriendly policies that lead to of the impetus for small-scale increase in Foreign Direct Investment.
8 EC ONOMY
a series of ratings downgrades entrepreneurship. Communities SA, with a booming middle class, is
and major capital flight. Inflation, work together to look after their propelled once again to being Africa’s
government debt, and interest own schooling, health care, leading economy, with its success
rates soar, causing widespread security, and other needs. This is heralded across the emerging world.
dejection among the public, who done despite the State and across Mineral beneficiation and a rise in
remain cowed and resigned to lines of race, class, and ethnicity. manufacturing make SA less reliant on
their fate. Last minute reactions save us superpowers, such as China.
from “junk status,” but not for long.
SA lacks sustainable solutions to
improve its investment ratings.
The world’s markets have another
Things go unexpectedly pear- crash as in 2008. This one could be
shaped and lurch out of control. deeper and longer than the last The world remains deeply divided but
Anti-establishment feeling one, since now there are fewer no seriously dramatic events occur.
increases and is aided and abetted options available to governments Nevertheless, global economic growth
by social media, with highly to re-stimulate the global economy. rates remain subdued compared to the
GL OB AL unpredictable outcomes. Wars Changes in global economic
9 last century, which was boosted by free
TRENDS break out in the Middle East and policies negatively impact SA, trade, free movement of people, and
Korea, which kill millions of people. e.g. China moves to a consumer the sharing of technology – all of which
Although it is unlikely that America economy that negatively impacts have been stopped in their tracks for the
will use nuclear weapons (due to coal and mineral exports. A rise foreseeable future.
the fear of a nuclear response from in “nationalism” runs counter
Russia), this is totally unpredictable. to African Unity initiatives. This
requires considerable effort to treat.
Leaders deny any link between
climate change and human International cooperation to address
activity. There is no coordinated The bailouts of State owned climate change reaches a scale
approach to the humanitarian enterprises and emerging market never seen before. A huge wave of
impact of climate change, which “survivalism” dictate SA's reaction to new products associated with clean
includes extreme weather events. climate change. Non-government energy is sparked and on par with
10 CLIM ATE South Africans are so caught up organisations' and the younger microelectronics and the internet.
in political and social squabbles generation's demands for more South African renewable energy and
that any effort to address climate sustainable solutions to carbon clean product economies contribute
change is seen as an unaffordable emissions fall on deaf ears. significantly to national and regional
luxury. The goal of greater energy security.
prosperity for all eclipses the need
to preserve the environment.

TABLE 6 : IRMSA SCENARIOS – 3 SCENARIOS AND 1 0 FL A GS .
3 4