Page 26 - IRMSA Risk Report 2020

3.1

P O S I T I O N I N G O U R S E L V E S F O R A R I S K - R E S I L I E N T
F U T U R E

Various future-oriented tools exist to help us deal with uncertainties that we are not yet able to clearly define. In our drive
to build a risk-resilient South Africa, leaders in all walks of life must understand:
• the most likely scenarios that we face as a country; and
• how to implement risk mitigating strategies that would:
• influence a preferred scenario to materialise; and/or
• enable us to prosper if one, or a combination of, defined scenarios become our reality.

The process of developing scenarios is complex, creative, and combines evidence-based social and economic research,
experts’ insights, individual interviews, online conversations, face-to-face engagement with people from different
communities and circumstances, research papers on influential issues, academic conferences, working sessions and many
other inputs. In line with this report’s principle of collaboration for resilience, we recognise the robust scenario work being
done by various bodies and eminent skilled individuals in our country. Therefore, we used inputs from leading scenario
builders to define the scenarios we believe to be important for a risk-resilient South Africa that will prosper despite the
many challenges it faces. For this purpose, we have considered the following scenario and futures-thinking experts:

FR ANS CR ONJE ’ S A CLEM SUNTER ’ S
INDL UL AMITHI ’ S TIME TR A VELLER ’ S GL OB AL FL A G
SOUTH AFRIC A GUIDE T O SOUTH W AT CHING –
SCENARIOS 2 0 3 0
AFRIC A IN 2 0 3 0 BREAKING FUTURES

As all scenario builders will caution, the purpose of scenarios is not to predict the future. A set of scenarios provides a
range of possible futures, allowing us to plan and prepare for different outcomes. It will be disastrous for leaders to fixate
on one scenario while disregarding the other scenarios or even futures that have not been formally defined as scenarios.
Small changes in the current circumstances of our complex lives (individually and collectively as a country may cause
defined with
likely future outcomes, we should always remain prepared to change our thinking on how our country’s future may play
out.

our
IRMSA scenarios for a risk-resilient South Africa that underpin the risk analysis in Chapter 4 of this report.

As Clem Sunter stated, is
by watching the flags intently; and the agility of a fox to adapt your strategy as best you can to the
new reality. It is called risk management.

May the fox be with you in making it an art!”

S C E N A R I O S E M P L O Y S T O R Y T E L L I N G T O E N G A G E T H E
E M O T I O N S A N D T H E I N T E L L E C T , T O I N S P I R E P E O P L E
T O TA K E T H E A C T I O N S N E C E S S A R Y T O F U L F I L O U R
C O U N T R Y ’ S P O T E N T I A L .

We fully acknowledge the rights and intellectual property relating to the scenarios quoted, referred to, adapted from
and/or discussed in this report. Any oversight will be corrected upon receiving communication pointing out such
oversight from the rightful owner.

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