Page 28 - IRMSA Risk Report 2020

3.3
FR ANS CR ONJE – A TIME TR A VELLER ’ S GUIDE T O
SOUTH AFRIC A IN 2 0 3 0

What will South Africa look like in 2030? And how will the next ten years unfold? South Africa has undergone dramatic
change in recent years. Political tensions are rising; economic performance has weakened; and more and more South
Africans are taking their frustrations to the streets. What does this mean for our future? Will a spark ignite the powder keg?
Leading scenario planner Frans Cronje analysed these trends and presented four scenarios for the country’s future. Will
South Africa take the socialist route and allow the State to seize all wealth and land? Will the status quo prevail, and the
wealth divide widen while crime soars? Do we face a pernicious erosion of our democratic rights and freedoms? Or will
a rainbow rise unexpectedly? Cronje’s set of scenarios is a sober compass for South Africa’s highly unpredictable future.

RISE OF THE RIGHT
This scenario depicts a new model of authoritarian capitalism that, on the one hand, sees the erosion of democratic
rights and freedoms, but, on the other hand, sees a great improvement in the material conditions of almost all South
Africans. This promotes a new sense of common purpose and cohesion among the citizenry and propels South Africa
to, once again, being Africa’s leading economy, with its success heralded across the emerging world.

T Y R ANN Y OF THE LEFT
Stagnant and negative economic growth rates persist with the State pursuing reckless out-of-date socialist policies
that lead to a series of ratings downgrades and major capital flight. Inflation, debt, and interest rates soar, causing
widespread dejection among the public, who remain cowed and resigned to their fate.

BREAK-UP
This scenario portrays a weak and divided Government in which fragmentation, factionalism and confusion reign. Two
classes of South Africans become apparent: the one within the walls and the one outside the walls. They have very
little to do with each other. Race and ethnic divisions deepen, and it is unclear whether society will ever be put back
together again.

RISE OF THE R AINBO W
South Africa is no longer a country in which people wait for the Government to do something for them. It is one in
which they do it for themselves, and the Government is there to help create the conditions for them to do so. Rather
than a weak government, this scenario describes the type of leadership in Government Nelson Mandela once fondly
described as leading a flock of sheep from behind.

South Africa, with a booming middle class, becomes an Asian Tiger without the authoritarianism inherent in the Rise of
the Right scenario. The rebound in the economy means that South Africans emerge from their self-imposed enclaves and
live comfortably alongside one another.

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