Page 27 - IRMSA Risk Report 2020

3.2
INDL UL AMITHI SOUTH AFRIC A SCENARIOS 2 0 3 0 – A
QUEST FOR SOCIAL C OHESION

INDL U-L A-MI-THI A NGUNI NOUN FOR GIR AFFE . IT INDIC ATES THE INTENTION
T O “ L OOK ABO VE THE TREES ”

The Indlulamithi scenarios aim to engage leaders from different sectors and people from all walks of life in open conversation
on the pursuit of a socially integrated, multicultural society in which communities and institutions aspire to eradicate the
social and economic inequalities that cause exclusion and injustice, and where they work towards access to opportunities
for all. Indlulamithi is devoted to helping South Africans realise a common purpose and shared vision that focuses on
appreciation of our diversity and on solidarity as a means to work towards development and progress.

“ WHAT W OULD A SOCIALLY C OHESIVE SOUTH

AFRIC A L OOK LIKE ? T O WHAT DEGREE IS IT
AT TAINABLE B Y 2 0 3 0 ? ”

GW AR A GW AR A – A FL OUNDERING F ALSE D A WN
The people of South Africa are torn between immobility and restless energy in a demoralised land of disorder
and decay. After a bleak seven or eight years of growth rates under 1% and 35 years after the first democratic
election, South Africa, to the surprise of many, elects its first President from the generation born after 1980 whose
declaration that “old men created this mess, let the young clean it up” resonates with constituencies across South
Africa. Surrounded by those who came of political age in the 2010s, many committed and highly educated, their
competence and confidence lights up the nation, reviving a sense that real change is possible. This unexpected
late-in-the-decade euphoria reminds the older generation of a time when a hopeful nation had wished for renewal in
2019, only to have seen their hopes fade with the terrible turmoil in the early 2020s, as both the ruling party and the
opposition parties were riven with schism and disunity. In 2030, the nation prays that this time it will be different for
South Africa and not, once again, just a promising mirage.

ISBHUJW A – AN ENCL A VE BOUR GEOIS NATION
Loose-limbed and jumpy, with a frenetic edge, iSbhujwa is a South Africa torn by deepening social divides, daily
protests, and cynical self-interest. Self-sufficiency increases, firstly as a survival mechanism and then as part of the
impetus for small-scale entrepreneurship. People realise that despite political party promises, jobs are not coming, at
least not for most of the long-term unemployed. Inspired by the entrepreneurial spirit of many African migrants in
South Africa’s towns and cities (even if the different communities still do not always get along), people create small
businesses in their own areas and continue to live in segregated “pockets of survival.”

NAY I LE W ALK – A NATION IN STEP WITH IT SELF
The precision of steps in Nayi le Walk and the confident spirit denote a country where growing social cohesion,
economic expansion, and a renewed spirit of constitutionalism get the nation going. South Africans are more in sync
with each other as they see a more coordinated State deliver better services. South Africa has become a place where
popular uprisings have given way to the rising up of the people. Promises of a better life for all become more tangible,
not just through the actions of Government but through the power of people taking charge of their own destinies.

To define these three scenarios, Indlulamithi considers the following factors (flags) as the most uncertain, but also the most
likely, to shape social cohesion in South Africa going forward:

• Social Inequality;
• Reconciliation, Resistance and Resentment; and
• Institutional and Leadership Capacity.

2 6