Page 30 - IRMSA Risk Report 2020

3.4
CLEM SUNTER ’ S GL OB AL FL A G W AT CHING – BREAKING
FUTURES

For many years, Clem Sunter has been watching the flags that could turn the world’s political and economic game upside
down and often shared this with IRMSA members. In his latest article, he confirms that these flags are now combining in a
way that could produce a day of reckoning sooner than many experienced futurists ever thought possible.
Sunter’s three scenarios are:

BL OODB ATH
Things go unexpectedly pear-shaped and lurch out of control. Wars break out in the Middle East and on the Korean
Peninsula. Millions of people are killed. It is unlikely that America will use nuclear weapons because of the fear of a
nuclear response from Russia. Having said that, it is Trump’s finger on the nuclear trigger, and he is totally unpredictable.
Nobody can restrain him.

FORKED LIGHTNING
The world’s markets have another crash as in 2008. This one could be deeper and longer than the last one, since now
there are fewer options available to governments to re-stimulate the global economy.

NAY I LE W ALK – A NATION IN STEP WITH IT SELF
GILDED C A GE
The world remains deeply divided but no seriously dramatic events occur. Trump’s threats turn out to be negotiating
ploys designed to soften up the opposition before agreeing to the deal on his terms. Nevertheless, global economic
growth rates remain subdued compared to the last century, which was boosted by free trade, free movement of
people, and the sharing of technology – which have all been stopped in their tracks for the foreseeable future. Hence,
the Gilded Cage is a best-case scenario: there is no credible alternative of a shift towards a friendlier planet on the cards
for the time being.