Page 29 - IRMSA Risk Report 2020

To determine which scenario is more likely to play out, Cronje urges us to watch the following flags:

RISE OF THE T Y R ANN Y OF THE BREAK-UP RISE OF THE
RIGHT LEFT R AINBO W

The ANC and DA come
together around the
importance of sensible
The ANC squabbles with
The ANC unites as one The ANC unites behind itself, even as the walls economic reforms
behind a reformist a cruel and corrupt of Luthuli House start to labour laws; the
leadership. leadership. importance of property
tumbling down.
rights; and the need for
effective empowerment
policies.
The cabinet introduces
a series of firm reforms
to labour market policy; The coming together
secures property rights; Redistributionist socialist translates into a turn in
and dispenses with Policy remains
dogma takes the place of
current affirmative action growth-focused reformist contradictory and Government policy that
seeks out private sector
and empowerment confusing.
policies in favour of an policy. investment to take the lead
in rebuilding SA.
empowerment model
centred around growth
and employment.
Racial tensions are Protests increase
An immensely impressive intentionally ratcheted dramatically and take Policy is effectively
and efficient civil service up amid rising levels of on repugnant racial and implemented.
arises.
violence. ethnic undertones.
An assault is launched Racial and social tensions
against democratic
Government quashes any institutions, property People start ignoring the are transitioned into a
dissent in its tracks. Government and the State. new mood of unity and
rights, and critical or common purpose.
dissenting voices.
Family, friends, and
The world experiences communities begin to The global economy
a sustained long-term The economy falters
economic recovery and SA between recession and develop their own plans recovers, and SA is well on
is well on its way to growth very low rates of growth. to look after their own its way to growth rates of
schooling, health care,
5%.
rates of 5%.
security, and other needs.
T A B L E 4 : C R O N J E ’ S F L A G S .

Source: Frans Cronje (2017) A Time Traveller’s Guide to South Africa in 2030. Tafelberg.

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