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I R M S A’ S R I S K - R E S I L I E N T S C E N A R I O S F O R S O U T H
A F R I C A

The flags discussed by our scenario builders are key driving forces or variables that are often the most uncertain, but also
the most likely, to shape potential future scenarios. They are early warning signals that fundamentally shape our
future. Our survival as a country will depend on our unified response to these flags – a response driven by our common
purpose. The scenario builders included in this report (Indlulamithi, Frans Cronje and Clem Sunter) each built their
scenario from a specific perspective: social cohesion, socio-economic success as a country, and global influences
respectively. In the table below, we position a consolidated view of the various scenarios from IRMSA’s perspective of
building a risk-resilient South Africa. Thereafter, we discuss the flags we believe require reaction to avoid ending up in the
worst-case scenario. Through logical combination of our scenario builders’ work, we have defined the following three
scenarios:

PERPE TU AL HANGO VER
Current trends of short-termism and social bankruptcy grow, with increasing distance between different groupings in
society. We are unable to counter the elements of populism, racial polarisation, and short-sighted economic policies
originating from some sections of our society. The logical outcome of this scenario is our inability to define and work
towards a common societal purpose and the ultimate implosion of the State as each grouping pursues its own goals
to the exclusion of all others.

F AKE IT UNTIL WE M AKE IT, OR NO T ?
While we seem to understand the unfortunate results of the “Perpetual Hangover” scenario and have lofty goals to
rebuild our national assets (investment growth, infrastructure, social capital), we are neither prepared nor desperate
enough to make the tough calls needed to turn our country around. By hoping that things will eventually recover we
are ignoring the elephant in the room and continue to hope for the best.

SPRING OF HOPE !
As a nation, we jealously protect our national well-being. We take individual and collective charge of our future and
firmly work to eliminating any “noise” in the system that could distract us from our common purpose. Although we do
not necessarily all agree on everything, we are building a new national consensus to drive a resilient society. This society
is based on our tolerance of each other as human beings and on the optimisation of our limited resources to achieve a
common goal across the various sectors of our economy.

WE ARE HERE WE ARE GOING HERE

PERPE TU AL F AKE IT TILL WE SPRING OF HOPE
HANGO VER M AKE IT . . . OR
N OT ?
Short-termism, social Taking individual and
IRMSA
bankruptcy, ultimate Lofty goals, not prepared to collective charge of our
implosion of the State make tough calls, ignoring future, building a new
the elephant in the room, national consensus to drive
hoping for the best a resilient society

Gwara Gwara – A flounder- iSbhujwa – An enclave Nayi le Walk – A nation in
INDL UL AMITHI
ing false dawn bourgeois nation step with itself
CLEM SUNTER Bloodbath Forked lightning Gilded cage
Rise of the
FR ANS CR ONJE The break-Up Tyranny of the left Rise of the right
rainbow
TABLE 5 : SOUTH AFRIC A SCENARIOS – WHERE ARE WE GOING ?
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